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New York RB III vs Lehigh Valley United — USL League Two 2018

New York RB III
New York RB III
FT
2 – 2
Lehigh Valley United
Lehigh Valley United
7/10/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 14Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

New York RB III67%
×Draw18%
Lehigh Valley United15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB III
2.44
Lehigh Valley United
1.07

New York RB III creates 128% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

New York RB III
2.09
Lehigh Valley United
1.33

allows per match

New York RB III
0.82
Lehigh Valley United
2.79

finishing

New York RB III+0.00on par
Lehigh Valley United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB III ↓

Lehigh Valley United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

New York RB III or draw
85%
New York RB III or Lehigh Valley United
82%
Draw or Lehigh Valley United
33%

Winning margin

New York RB III wins by 2+
45%
Lehigh Valley United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

New York RB III 1+ goals
91%
New York RB III 2+ goals
70%
New York RB III 3+ goals
43%
Lehigh Valley United 1+ goals
66%
Lehigh Valley United 2+ goals
29%
Lehigh Valley United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

New York RB III (draw refunded)
82%
Lehigh Valley United (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB III at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Lehigh Valley United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB III attack 2.09 + Lehigh Valley United defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.44

Lehigh Valley United attack 1.33 + New York RB III defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

New York RB III scores more
67%
level
18%
Lehigh Valley United scores more
15%

New York RB III at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "New York RB III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB III 2 – 2 Lehigh Valley United

New York RB III and Lehigh Valley United drew 2-2 in USL League Two on July 10, 2019.

The match was played at Red Bull Academy Training Field 1 (Whippany, New Jersey).