Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

New York RB II vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
3/9/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 1MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

New York RB II52%
×Draw22%
Sporting KC II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
2.01
Sporting KC II
1.39

New York RB II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
73%
New York RB II or Sporting KC II
78%
Draw or Sporting KC II
48%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
30%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
87%
New York RB II 2+ goals
59%
New York RB II 3+ goals
32%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
75%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
40%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
66%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

New York RB II scores more
52%
level
22%
Sporting KC II scores more
27%

New York RB II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB II 3 – 1 Sporting KC II

New York RB II beat Sporting KC II 3-1 in USL Championship on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey).