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New York RB II vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
6/2/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

New York RB II40%
×Draw23%
San Diego Loyal37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
1.65
San Diego Loyal
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
63%
New York RB II or San Diego Loyal
77%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
60%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
20%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
81%
New York RB II 2+ goals
49%
New York RB II 3+ goals
23%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
79%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
46%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
52%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.65

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

New York RB II scores more
40%
level
23%
San Diego Loyal scores more
37%

New York RB II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: New York RB II 2–2 San Diego Loyal

New York RB II and San Diego Loyal drew 2-2 in USL Championship on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey.