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New York RB II vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
7/1/2017USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

New York RB II47%
×Draw24%
Saint Louis29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
1.68
Saint Louis
1.27

New York RB II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
71%
New York RB II or Saint Louis
76%
Draw or Saint Louis
53%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
25%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
81%
New York RB II 2+ goals
50%
New York RB II 3+ goals
24%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
72%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
36%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
62%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

New York RB II scores more
47%
level
24%
Saint Louis scores more
29%

New York RB II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB II 1 – 0 Saint Louis

New York RB II beat Saint Louis 1-0 in USL Championship on July 1, 2017.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park at Pittser Field (Montclair, New Jersey).