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New York RB II vs Nashville — USL Championship 2018

New York RB II
New York RB II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nashville
Nashville
5/6/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 14Red Bull Arena (Harrison, New Jersey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

New York RB II36%
×Draw25%
Nashville39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
1.39
Nashville
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

creates per match

New York RB II
1.84
Nashville
1.29

allows per match

New York RB II
1.60
Nashville
0.94

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Nashville+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Nashville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
61%
New York RB II or Nashville
75%
Draw or Nashville
64%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
17%
Nashville wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
75%
New York RB II 2+ goals
40%
New York RB II 3+ goals
16%
Nashville 1+ goals
77%
Nashville 2+ goals
42%
Nashville 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
48%
Nashville (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

Nashville away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 1.84 + Nashville defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nashville attack 1.29 + New York RB II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

New York RB II scores more
36%
level
25%
Nashville scores more
39%

Nashville at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nashville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New York RB II 1 – 1 Nashville

New York RB II and Nashville drew 1-1 in USL Championship on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena (Harrison, New Jersey).