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New York RB II vs Inter Miami II — MLS Next Pro 2022

New York RB II
New York RB II
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
9/21/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 37MSU Soccer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

New York RB II67%
×Draw17%
Inter Miami II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York RB II
2.70
Inter Miami II
1.28

New York RB II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 50 away

creates per match

New York RB II
2.67
Inter Miami II
0.88

allows per match

New York RB II
1.69
Inter Miami II
2.72

finishing

New York RB II+0.00on par
Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York RB II ↓

Inter Miami II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

New York RB II or draw
84%
New York RB II or Inter Miami II
83%
Draw or Inter Miami II
33%

Winning margin

New York RB II wins by 2+
46%
Inter Miami II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

New York RB II 1+ goals
93%
New York RB II 2+ goals
75%
New York RB II 3+ goals
50%
Inter Miami II 1+ goals
72%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
37%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York RB II (draw refunded)
80%
Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York RB II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York RB II attack 2.67 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.70

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + New York RB II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

New York RB II scores more
67%
level
17%
Inter Miami II scores more
16%

New York RB II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "New York RB II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: New York RB II 1–1 Inter Miami II

New York RB II and Inter Miami II drew 1-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at MSU Soccer Park.