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New York City II vs FC Cincinnati II — MLS Next Pro 2022

New York City II
New York City II
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
4/9/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 6Belson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

New York City II58%
×Draw20%
FC Cincinnati II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New York City II
2.21
FC Cincinnati II
1.31

New York City II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 53 away

creates per match

New York City II
2.15
FC Cincinnati II
1.09

allows per match

New York City II
1.54
FC Cincinnati II
2.28

finishing

New York City II+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City II ↓

FC Cincinnati II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

New York City II or draw
78%
New York City II or FC Cincinnati II
80%
Draw or FC Cincinnati II
42%

Winning margin

New York City II wins by 2+
35%
FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

New York City II 1+ goals
89%
New York City II 2+ goals
65%
New York City II 3+ goals
38%
FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
73%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
38%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

New York City II (draw refunded)
72%
FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

FC Cincinnati II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City II attack 2.15 + FC Cincinnati II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.21

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.09 + New York City II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

New York City II scores more
58%
level
20%
FC Cincinnati II scores more
22%

New York City II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "New York City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New York City II vs FC Cincinnati II

New York City II and FC Cincinnati II drew 2-2 in MLS Next Pro on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Belson Stadium.