New York City FC 1–0 FC Cincinnati: Result & Stats

New York City FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Cincinnati

J. Fernandez 9'

5/4/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 11Citi Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

New York City FC45%

×Draw24%

FC Cincinnati31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New York City FCExpected goals in this matchFC Cincinnati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.30

New York City FC

1.61

FC Cincinnati

1.30

New York City FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.33

1.27

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

New York City FC

1.58

FC Cincinnati

1.33

allows per match

New York City FC

1.27

FC Cincinnati

1.65

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

New York City FC+0.42scores more

FC Cincinnati+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New York City FC ↓

FC Cincinnati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

New York City FC or draw

69%

New York City FC or FC Cincinnati

76%

Draw or FC Cincinnati

55%

Winning margin

New York City FC wins by 2+

23%

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

New York City FC 1+ goals

80%

New York City FC 2+ goals

48%

New York City FC 3+ goals

22%

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals

73%

FC Cincinnati 2+ goals

37%

FC Cincinnati 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

New York City FC (draw refunded)

59%

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New York City FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New York City FC attack 1.58 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

FC Cincinnati attack 1.33 + New York City FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

New York City FC scores more

45%

level

24%

FC Cincinnati scores more

31%

New York City FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "New York City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Fernandez

New York City FC · F

8.6

Match Events

9'

J. Fernandez

12'

Matthew Miazga

26'

B. Risa← K. Parks

39'

Matthew Freese

46'

Sergio Santos← N. Hagglund

46'

G. Valenzuela← Y. Kubo

53'

69'

71'

75'

81'

C. Baird← L. Orellano

85'

M. Bakrar← A. Martinez

85'

A. Ojeda← J. Fernandez

89'

B. Smith← L. Engel

90+2'

Evander

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots15

2.44Expected Goals (xG)1.07

7Corners6

11Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots15

5On Target4

7Off Target8

7Blocked3

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

434Total Passes442

354Accurate Passes361

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

0.66Goals Prevented0.66

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2