New Town 6–1 Hobart Utd.: Result & Stats

New Town

FT

6 – 1

HT: 6 – 0

Hobart Utd.

7/19/2025

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 15Clare Street Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

New Town65%

×Draw16%

Hobart Utd.19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New TownExpected goals in this matchHobart Utd.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.32

1.83

New Town

3.32

Hobart Utd.

1.83

New Town creates 81% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 28 away

3.24

creates per match

2.43

1.24

allows per match

3.39

creates per match

New Town

3.24

Hobart Utd.

2.43

allows per match

New Town

1.24

Hobart Utd.

3.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Town+0.00on par

Hobart Utd.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Town ↓

Hobart Utd. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

New Town or draw

81%

New Town or Hobart Utd.

84%

Draw or Hobart Utd.

35%

Winning margin

New Town wins by 2+

46%

Hobart Utd. wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

New Town 1+ goals

96%

New Town 2+ goals

84%

New Town 3+ goals

62%

Hobart Utd. 1+ goals

84%

Hobart Utd. 2+ goals

54%

Hobart Utd. 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

New Town (draw refunded)

77%

Hobart Utd. (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Town at home — creates 3.24, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

Hobart Utd. away — creates 2.43, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Town attack 3.24 + Hobart Utd. defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 3.32

Hobart Utd. attack 2.43 + New Town defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

New Town scores more

65%

level

16%

Hobart Utd. scores more

19%

New Town at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "New Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff