New Star vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 39+ matches
New Star30%
UMS de Loum41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
UMS de Loum creates 22% more chances
Season form · 39 home / 66 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New Star ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New Star at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 39 matches
UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New Star attack 1.05 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97
UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + New Star defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
UMS de Loum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "UMS de Loum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Cotonsport
Dragon de Yaoundé
APEJES Academy
Tonnerre
Union Douala
Colombe
Avion Academy
PWDNew Star
Feutcheu
Stade RenardUMS de Loum
Young Sport Academy
Fortuna Mfou
Eding Sport
Les Astres
Unisport Bafang
Fovu ClubIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
New Star host UMS de Loum on Wednesday, 20 April 2022 at 14:30. The match is part of the Elite One 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: New Star vs UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum beat New Star 3-0 in Elite One on April 20, 2022.
The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.