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New Star vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

New Star
New Star
FT
1 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
Unknown 77'
Unknown 73'
4/3/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 5Stade Omnisport de Douala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

New Star37%
×Draw29%
Tonnerre34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Star
1.16
Tonnerre
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

New Star
1.12
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

New Star
1.56
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

New Star+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Star ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

New Star or draw
66%
New Star or Tonnerre
71%
Draw or Tonnerre
63%

Winning margin

New Star wins by 2+
15%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

New Star 1+ goals
69%
New Star 2+ goals
32%
New Star 3+ goals
11%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
67%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
30%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

New Star (draw refunded)
52%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Star at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Star attack 1.12 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + New Star defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

New Star scores more
37%
level
29%
Tonnerre scores more
34%

New Star at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "New Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: New Star 1–1 Tonnerre

New Star and Tonnerre drew 1-1 in Elite One on April 3, 2021.

Goals: ? (73', 77').

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Douala in Douala.