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New Star vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

New Star
New Star
FT
2 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
3/3/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 7Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

New Star38%
×Draw27%
Tonnerre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Star
1.25
Tonnerre
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

creates per match

New Star
0.94
Tonnerre
0.86

allows per match

New Star
1.52
Tonnerre
1.57

finishing

New Star+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Star ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

New Star or draw
65%
New Star or Tonnerre
73%
Draw or Tonnerre
62%

Winning margin

New Star wins by 2+
16%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

New Star 1+ goals
71%
New Star 2+ goals
36%
New Star 3+ goals
13%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
70%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
33%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

New Star (draw refunded)
52%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Star at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Star attack 0.94 + Tonnerre defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tonnerre attack 0.86 + New Star defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

New Star scores more
38%
level
27%
Tonnerre scores more
35%

New Star at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "New Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: New Star 2–1 Tonnerre

New Star beat Tonnerre 2-1 in Elite One on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Limbe Centenary Stadium (Limbe).