New Star 0–1 Cotonsport: Result & Stats | Elite One

New Star

FT

0 – 1

Cotonsport

Unknown 77'

5/2/2021

Elite One · Round 7Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

New Star26%

×Draw28%

Cotonsport46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New StarExpected goals in this matchCotonsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.31

New Star

0.91

Cotonsport

1.31

Cotonsport creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 102 away

0.94

creates per match

1.11

1.52

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

New Star

0.94

Cotonsport

1.11

allows per match

New Star

1.52

Cotonsport

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Star+0.00on par

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Star ↓

Cotonsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

New Star or draw

54%

New Star or Cotonsport

72%

Draw or Cotonsport

74%

Winning margin

New Star wins by 2+

9%

Cotonsport wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

New Star 1+ goals

60%

New Star 2+ goals

23%

New Star 3+ goals

6%

Cotonsport 1+ goals

73%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

38%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

New Star (draw refunded)

36%

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Star at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Star attack 0.94 + Cotonsport defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Cotonsport attack 1.11 + New Star defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

New Star scores more

26%

level

28%

Cotonsport scores more

46%

Cotonsport at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff