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New Project vs Tukums — 1. Liga 2026

New Project
New Project
FT
1 – 2
Tukums
Tukums
4/13/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 2RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

New Project23%
×Draw21%
Tukums56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Project
1.34
Tukums
2.17

Tukums creates 62% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

creates per match

New Project
1.77
Tukums
2.73

allows per match

New Project
1.62
Tukums
0.91

finishing

New Project+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Project ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

New Project or draw
44%
New Project or Tukums
79%
Draw or Tukums
77%

Winning margin

New Project wins by 2+
10%
Tukums wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

New Project 1+ goals
74%
New Project 2+ goals
39%
New Project 3+ goals
15%
Tukums 1+ goals
89%
Tukums 2+ goals
64%
Tukums 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

New Project (draw refunded)
29%
Tukums (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Project at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Tukums away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Project attack 1.77 + Tukums defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tukums attack 2.73 + New Project defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

New Project scores more
23%
level
21%
Tukums scores more
56%

Tukums at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: New Project 1–2 Tukums

Tukums beat New Project 2-1 in 1. Liga on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at RTU stadions (Rīga (Riga)).