Sagan Tosu 1–1 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Sagan Tosu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nagoya Grampus

K. Mizunuma 49'

T. Masukawa 35'

8/31/2013

J1 League · Round 24Best Amenity Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Sagan Tosu40%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sagan TosuExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Sagan Tosu

1.33

Nagoya Grampus

1.17

Sagan Tosu creates 14% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 147 away

1.25

creates per match

1.16

1.18

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Sagan Tosu

1.25

Nagoya Grampus

1.16

allows per match

Sagan Tosu

1.18

Nagoya Grampus

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw

67%

Sagan Tosu or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

60%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+

18%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals

74%

Sagan Tosu 2+ goals

38%

Sagan Tosu 3+ goals

15%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

69%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

33%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)

55%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 123 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.25 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more

40%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

33%

Sagan Tosu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

T. Masukawa

49'

K. Mizunuma

69'

T. Taguchi← N. Nakamura

74'

N. Fujita← Nilson

77'

K. Nagai← Y. Ogawa

81'

R. Bando← R. Noda

87'

K. Yano← D. Córdoba

88'

T. Kobayashi← T. Kanai

Sagan

Nagoya

1

Narazaki

32

Tanaka

5

⚽

6

22

8

7

▼

Nakamura

10

▼

Ogawa

20

▼

11

16

33

15

24

▼

Kanai

16

▼

Nilson

20

Yeo

36

Kikuchi

8

⚽

28

10

11

18

▼

Noda

74'▲N. Fujita←▼Nilson

81'▲R. Bando←▼R. Noda

88'▲T. Kobayashi←▼T. Kanai

Sagan Tosu substitutes

14Fujita9Bando4Kobayashi3Isozaki19Okada29Kishida31Fujishima

69'▲T. Taguchi←▼N. Nakamura

77'▲K. Nagai←▼Y. Ogawa

87'▲K. Yano←▼D. Córdoba

Nagoya Grampus substitutes

28Taguchi18Nagai19Yano9Jakimovski23Ishibitsu35Tanaka50Takagi