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Nagoya Grampus vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
10/27/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 31Nagaragawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nagoya Grampus43%
×Draw25%
Sagan Tosu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.50
Sagan Tosu
1.25

Nagoya Grampus creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.36
Sagan Tosu
1.19

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.31
Sagan Tosu
1.63

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.38scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
68%
Nagoya Grampus or Sagan Tosu
75%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
57%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
21%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
78%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
44%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
19%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
71%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
36%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
58%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 33 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.63 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.36 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sagan Tosu attack 1.19 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
43%
level
25%
Sagan Tosu scores more
32%

Nagoya Grampus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sagan Tosu

Nagoya Grampus and Sagan Tosu drew 1-1 in J1 League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Nagaragawa Stadium in Gifu.