Stromsgodset 3–2 Valerenga: Result & Stats

Stromsgodset

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Valerenga

V. Sakor 86' (OG)

L. Vilsvik 71'

M. Keita 58'

M. Abu 28' (OG)

D. Brown 20'

5/22/2016

Eliteserien · Round 12Marienlyst Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Stromsgodset44%

×Draw23%

Valerenga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StromsgodsetExpected goals in this matchValerenga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.52

Stromsgodset

1.78

Valerenga

1.52

Stromsgodset creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

1.77

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Stromsgodset

1.82

Valerenga

1.27

allows per match

Stromsgodset

1.77

Valerenga

1.74

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Stromsgodset-0.60scores less

Valerenga-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stromsgodset ↓

Valerenga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stromsgodset or draw

67%

Stromsgodset or Valerenga

77%

Draw or Valerenga

56%

Winning margin

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

23%

Valerenga wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

83%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

53%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

26%

Valerenga 1+ goals

78%

Valerenga 2+ goals

45%

Valerenga 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

57%

Valerenga (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stromsgodset at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 27 matches

Valerenga away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stromsgodset attack 1.82 + Valerenga defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.78

Valerenga attack 1.27 + Stromsgodset defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stromsgodset scores more

44%

level

23%

Valerenga scores more

33%

Stromsgodset at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stromsgodset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

L. Vilsvik

Stromsgodset · D

8.2

Match Events

20'

D. Brown↳ R. Lundström

27'

Robert Lundstrom

28'

M. AbuOwn goal

46'

M. Keita← Ø. Storflor

46'

P. Moen← M. Abu

58'

M. Keita↳ J. Parr

60'

Petter Vaagan Moen

60'

N. Castro← E. Ómarsson

65'

Aslak Falch

65'

Rasmus Lindkvist

71'

L. Vilsvik↳ M. Keita

77'

R. Larsen← H. Stengel

80'

A. Nedrebø← S. Juklerød

84'

T. Høiland← T. Nguen

86'

V. SakorOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StromsgodsetValerenga

Overview

69%Possession31%

22Total Shots12

7Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots12

8On Target4

11Off Target5

3Blocked3

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

615Total Passes272

500Accurate Passes170

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1