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Varzim vs Freamunde — Segunda Liga 2018

Varzim
Varzim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Freamunde
Freamunde
10/2/2016Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 10Estádio Varzim Sport Club (Póvoa de Varzim)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Varzim30%
×Draw34%
Freamunde36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Varzim
0.78
Freamunde
0.88

Freamunde creates 13% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 3 away

creates per match

Varzim
0.89
Freamunde
0.67

allows per match

Varzim
1.09
Freamunde
0.67

finishing

Varzim+0.00on par
Freamunde+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Varzim ↓

Freamunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–117%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Varzim or draw
64%
Varzim or Freamunde
66%
Draw or Freamunde
70%

Winning margin

Varzim wins by 2+
9%
Freamunde wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Varzim 1+ goals
54%
Varzim 2+ goals
18%
Varzim 3+ goals
4%
Freamunde 1+ goals
59%
Freamunde 2+ goals
22%
Freamunde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Varzim (draw refunded)
46%
Freamunde (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Varzim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.09 · 56 matches

Freamunde away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Varzim attack 0.89 + Freamunde defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Freamunde attack 0.67 + Varzim defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Varzim scores more
30%
level
34%
Freamunde scores more
36%

Freamunde at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Freamunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
Sérgio Organista← Leonel Olímpio
66'
Diogo Ramos← Hassan
74'
Tiago Alves← Rui Neta
80'
M. Laso← L. Chaparro
84'
Renatinho← Nelsinho
85'
Fábio Vieira← Miguel Pedro

Segunda Liga: Varzim 0–0 Freamunde

Varzim and Freamunde drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on October 2, 2016.

The match was played at Estádio Varzim Sport Club (Póvoa de Varzim).