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New Mexico United vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

New Mexico United
New Mexico United
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
8/15/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 28Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

New Mexico United50%
×Draw24%
FC Tulsa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Mexico United
1.75
FC Tulsa
1.20

New Mexico United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 130 away

creates per match

New Mexico United
1.70
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

New Mexico United
1.21
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

New Mexico United+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

New Mexico United or draw
74%
New Mexico United or FC Tulsa
76%
Draw or FC Tulsa
50%

Winning margin

New Mexico United wins by 2+
27%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

New Mexico United 1+ goals
83%
New Mexico United 2+ goals
52%
New Mexico United 3+ goals
25%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
70%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
34%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United (draw refunded)
66%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United attack 1.70 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + New Mexico United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

New Mexico United scores more
50%
level
24%
FC Tulsa scores more
26%

New Mexico United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "New Mexico United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: New Mexico United 3–3 FC Tulsa

New Mexico United and FC Tulsa drew 3-3 in USL Championship on August 15, 2024.

The match was played at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park in Albuquerque, New Mexico.