New Mexico United II 1–2 Park City Red Wolves

New Mexico United II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Park City Red Wolves

6/11/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 6Hutchinson Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

New Mexico United II38%

×Draw23%

Park City Red Wolves39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New Mexico United IIExpected goals in this matchPark City Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.65

New Mexico United II

1.64

Park City Red Wolves

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 22 away

1.69

creates per match

1.86

1.44

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

New Mexico United II

1.69

Park City Red Wolves

1.86

allows per match

New Mexico United II

1.44

Park City Red Wolves

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United II ↓

Park City Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

New Mexico United II or draw

61%

New Mexico United II or Park City Red Wolves

77%

Draw or Park City Red Wolves

62%

Winning margin

New Mexico United II wins by 2+

19%

Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

New Mexico United II 1+ goals

81%

New Mexico United II 2+ goals

49%

New Mexico United II 3+ goals

23%

Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals

81%

Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals

49%

Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)

50%

Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United II attack 1.69 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + New Mexico United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

New Mexico United II scores more

38%

level

23%

Park City Red Wolves scores more

39%

Park City Red Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff