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New Mexico United II vs Ogden City — USL League Two 2018

New Mexico United II
New Mexico United II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ogden City
Ogden City
6/10/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 29Capital High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

New Mexico United II42%
×Draw23%
Ogden City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Mexico United II
1.71
Ogden City
1.52

New Mexico United II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

New Mexico United II
1.69
Ogden City
1.60

allows per match

New Mexico United II
1.44
Ogden City
1.72

finishing

New Mexico United II+0.00on par
Ogden City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Mexico United II ↓

Ogden City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

New Mexico United II or draw
66%
New Mexico United II or Ogden City
77%
Draw or Ogden City
58%

Winning margin

New Mexico United II wins by 2+
22%
Ogden City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

New Mexico United II 1+ goals
82%
New Mexico United II 2+ goals
51%
New Mexico United II 3+ goals
24%
Ogden City 1+ goals
78%
Ogden City 2+ goals
45%
Ogden City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)
55%
Ogden City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Mexico United II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Ogden City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Mexico United II attack 1.69 + Ogden City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ogden City attack 1.60 + New Mexico United II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

New Mexico United II scores more
42%
level
23%
Ogden City scores more
34%

New Mexico United II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "New Mexico United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: New Mexico United II 2–2 Ogden City

New Mexico United II and Ogden City drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 10, 2022.

The match was played at Capital High School in Charleston, West Virginia.