Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

New Jack vs JSK — Ligue 1 2019

New Jack
New Jack
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
JSK
JSK
10/11/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

New Jack35%
×Draw31%
JSK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Jack
0.99
JSK
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 81 away

creates per match

New Jack
0.96
JSK
0.94

allows per match

New Jack
1.00
JSK
1.02

finishing

New Jack+0.00on par
JSK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jack ↓

JSK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

New Jack or draw
66%
New Jack or JSK
69%
Draw or JSK
65%

Winning margin

New Jack wins by 2+
13%
JSK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

New Jack 1+ goals
63%
New Jack 2+ goals
26%
New Jack 3+ goals
8%
JSK 1+ goals
62%
JSK 2+ goals
25%
JSK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

New Jack (draw refunded)
51%
JSK (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jack at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

JSK away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.02 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jack attack 0.96 + JSK defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.99

JSK attack 0.94 + New Jack defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

New Jack scores more
35%
level
31%
JSK scores more
34%

New Jack at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "New Jack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: New Jack 1–1 JSK

New Jack and JSK drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.