New Jack 2–1 Céleste: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

New Jack

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Céleste

10/26/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

New Jack36%

×Draw31%

Céleste33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New JackExpected goals in this matchCéleste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.96

New Jack

1.02

Céleste

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 44 away

0.96

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

New Jack

0.96

Céleste

0.91

allows per match

New Jack

1.00

Céleste

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

New Jack+0.00on par

Céleste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jack ↓

Céleste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

New Jack or draw

67%

New Jack or Céleste

69%

Draw or Céleste

64%

Winning margin

New Jack wins by 2+

14%

Céleste wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

New Jack 1+ goals

64%

New Jack 2+ goals

27%

New Jack 3+ goals

8%

Céleste 1+ goals

62%

Céleste 2+ goals

25%

Céleste 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

New Jack (draw refunded)

52%

Céleste (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jack at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Céleste away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jack attack 0.96 + Céleste defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Céleste attack 0.91 + New Jack defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

New Jack scores more

36%

level

31%

Céleste scores more

33%

New Jack at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "New Jack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff