New England II vs Philadelphia Union II — MLS Next Pro 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
New England II40%
Philadelphia Union II37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 51 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New England II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New England II at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches
Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New England II attack 1.76 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.69
Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + New England II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
New England II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "New England II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Columbus Crew II
Toronto II
Rochester RhinosBethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CFNew England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City II
FC Cincinnati II
Tacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
New England II host Philadelphia Union II on Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 19:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2022/2023 season.
MLS Next Pro: New England II 1–3 Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II beat New England II 3-1 in MLS Next Pro on May 19, 2024.
The match was played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.