New England II vs FC Cincinnati II — MLS Next Pro 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 52+ matches
New England II57%
FC Cincinnati II21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
New England II creates 76% more chances
Season form · 52 home / 54 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New England II ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New England II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches
FC Cincinnati II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New England II attack 1.79 + FC Cincinnati II defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.04
FC Cincinnati II attack 1.09 + New England II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 57%?"
New England II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 57% does not mean "New England II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Columbus Crew II
Toronto II
Rochester Rhinos
Bethlehem Steel
New York City II
Fort Lauderdale CFNew England II
Chicago FC United
Orlando City IIFC Cincinnati II
Tacoma Defiance
St. Louis City II
Houston Dynamo FC II
North Texas
San Jose Earthquakes II
Minnesota United II
Whitecaps II
Colorado Rapids II
Swope Park Rangers
Real Monarchs
Portland Timbers IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
New England II host FC Cincinnati II on Thursday, 13 March 2025 at 21:00. The match is part of the MLS Next Pro 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: New England II vs FC Cincinnati II
New England II beat FC Cincinnati II 2-0 in MLS Next Pro on March 13, 2025.
Goals: D. Hutchinson (73'), Marcos Dias (75').
The match was played at Gillette Stadium.