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New Edubiase vs Sefwi All Stars — Division One League 2025

New Edubiase
New Edubiase
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sefwi All Stars
Sefwi All Stars
5/3/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

New Edubiase56%
×Draw29%
Sefwi All Stars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Edubiase
1.33
Sefwi All Stars
0.54

New Edubiase creates 146% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

New Edubiase
1.13
Sefwi All Stars
0.40

allows per match

New Edubiase
0.67
Sefwi All Stars
1.53

finishing

New Edubiase+0.00on par
Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Edubiase ↓

Sefwi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

New Edubiase or draw
85%
New Edubiase or Sefwi All Stars
71%
Draw or Sefwi All Stars
44%

Winning margin

New Edubiase wins by 2+
27%
Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

New Edubiase 1+ goals
74%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
38%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
15%
Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals
42%
Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals
10%
Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

New Edubiase (draw refunded)
79%
Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Edubiase at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Edubiase attack 1.13 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + New Edubiase defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

New Edubiase scores more
56%
level
29%
Sefwi All Stars scores more
15%

New Edubiase at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "New Edubiase will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: New Edubiase 1–0 Sefwi All Stars

New Edubiase beat Sefwi All Stars 1-0 in Division One League on May 3, 2026.