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New Edubiase vs Future Stars — Division One League 2025

New Edubiase
New Edubiase
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Future Stars
Future Stars
5/17/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

New Edubiase53%
×Draw29%
Future Stars18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Edubiase
1.30
Future Stars
0.64

New Edubiase creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

New Edubiase
1.13
Future Stars
0.60

allows per match

New Edubiase
0.67
Future Stars
1.47

finishing

New Edubiase+0.00on par
Future Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Edubiase ↓

Future Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

New Edubiase or draw
82%
New Edubiase or Future Stars
71%
Draw or Future Stars
47%

Winning margin

New Edubiase wins by 2+
25%
Future Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

New Edubiase 1+ goals
73%
New Edubiase 2+ goals
37%
New Edubiase 3+ goals
14%
Future Stars 1+ goals
47%
Future Stars 2+ goals
14%
Future Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

New Edubiase (draw refunded)
74%
Future Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Edubiase at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Future Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Edubiase attack 1.13 + Future Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Future Stars attack 0.60 + New Edubiase defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

New Edubiase scores more
53%
level
29%
Future Stars scores more
18%

New Edubiase at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "New Edubiase will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: New Edubiase vs Future Stars

New Edubiase and Future Stars drew 2-2 in Division One League on May 17, 2026.