Nevşehir Belediyespor 3–1 Yozgatspor 1959

Nevşehir Belediyespor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yozgatspor 1959

9/15/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundNevşehir 3 Nolu Saha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor58%

×Draw26%

Yozgatspor 195916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nevşehir BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchYozgatspor 1959

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.67

Nevşehir Belediyespor

1.54

Yozgatspor 1959

0.67

Nevşehir Belediyespor creates 130% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

0.83

0.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nevşehir Belediyespor

1.75

Yozgatspor 1959

0.83

allows per match

Nevşehir Belediyespor

0.50

Yozgatspor 1959

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Yozgatspor 1959+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevşehir Belediyespor ↓

Yozgatspor 1959 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nevşehir Belediyespor or draw

84%

Nevşehir Belediyespor or Yozgatspor 1959

74%

Draw or Yozgatspor 1959

42%

Winning margin

Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

31%

Yozgatspor 1959 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

79%

Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

45%

Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

20%

Yozgatspor 1959 1+ goals

49%

Yozgatspor 1959 2+ goals

15%

Yozgatspor 1959 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

78%

Yozgatspor 1959 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Yozgatspor 1959 away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 1.75 + Yozgatspor 1959 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yozgatspor 1959 attack 0.83 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more

58%

level

26%

Yozgatspor 1959 scores more

16%

Nevşehir Belediyespor at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nevşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff