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Nevşehir Belediyespor vs Osmaniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Nevşehir Belediyespor
Nevşehir Belediyespor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Osmaniyespor
Osmaniyespor
9/11/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundNevşehir Gazi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor74%
×Draw18%
Osmaniyespor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevşehir Belediyespor
2.02
Osmaniyespor
0.46

Nevşehir Belediyespor creates 339% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nevşehir Belediyespor
1.75
Osmaniyespor
0.43

allows per match

Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.50
Osmaniyespor
2.29

finishing

Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevşehir Belediyespor ↓

Osmaniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nevşehir Belediyespor or draw
93%
Nevşehir Belediyespor or Osmaniyespor
82%
Draw or Osmaniyespor
26%

Winning margin

Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
48%
Osmaniyespor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
87%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
60%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
33%
Osmaniyespor 1+ goals
37%
Osmaniyespor 2+ goals
8%
Osmaniyespor 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
91%
Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 1.75 + Osmaniyespor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.02

Osmaniyespor attack 0.43 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more
74%
level
18%
Osmaniyespor scores more
7%

Nevşehir Belediyespor at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Nevşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Nevşehir Belediyespor 0–1 Osmaniyespor

Osmaniyespor beat Nevşehir Belediyespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

The match was played at Nevşehir Gazi Stadyumu in Nevşehir.