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Nevėžis vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
A. Raginis 90+2', 76'
C. Bella 44'
J. Kasparavicius 13'
M. Setkus 81'
8/31/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 21Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Nevėžis54%
×Draw22%
Žalgiris II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
2.03
Žalgiris II
1.32

Nevėžis creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 91 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.82
Žalgiris II
1.54

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.10
Žalgiris II
2.24

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
75%
Nevėžis or Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Žalgiris II
46%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
32%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
87%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
60%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
33%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
73%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
38%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
68%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 90 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.24 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Žalgiris II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.03

Žalgiris II attack 1.54 + Nevėžis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nevėžis scores more
54%
level
22%
Žalgiris II scores more
25%

Nevėžis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
J. Kasparavicius
44'
C. Bella
76'
A. Raginis
81'
M. Setkus
90+2'
A. Raginis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Nevėžis 4–1 Žalgiris II

Nevėžis beat Žalgiris II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on August 31, 2023.

Goals: J. Kasparavicius (13'), C. Bella (44'), A. Raginis (76', 90+2'), M. Setkus (81').

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas in Kėdainiai.