Nevėžis 1–2 Šilas: Result & Stats | Cup

Nevėžis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Šilas

4/22/2022

Cup · 1st RoundKėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nevėžis4%

×Draw8%

Šilas87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchŠilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

3.70

Nevėžis

0.80

Šilas

3.70

Šilas creates 363% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

4.80

2.60

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Nevėžis

0.80

Šilas

4.80

allows per match

Nevėžis

2.60

Šilas

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Šilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Šilas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–28%

0–310%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

13%

Nevėžis or Šilas

92%

Draw or Šilas

96%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

1%

Šilas wins by 2+

72%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

55%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

19%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

5%

Šilas 1+ goals

97%

Šilas 2+ goals

87%

Šilas 3+ goals

69%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

5%

Šilas (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Šilas away — creates 4.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 0.80 + Šilas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Šilas attack 4.80 + Nevėžis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Nevėžis scores more

4%

level

8%

Šilas scores more

87%

Šilas at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Šilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff