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Nevėžis vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
4/7/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 5Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Nevėžis54%
×Draw22%
Panevėžys II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
2.00
Panevėžys II
1.29

Nevėžis creates 55% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 81 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.82
Panevėžys II
1.47

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.12
Panevėžys II
2.19

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Panevėžys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
75%
Nevėžis or Panevėžys II
78%
Draw or Panevėžys II
46%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
31%
Panevėžys II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
86%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
59%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
32%
Panevėžys II 1+ goals
72%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
37%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
69%
Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.00

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nevėžis scores more
54%
level
22%
Panevėžys II scores more
25%

Nevėžis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nevėžis vs Panevėžys II

Nevėžis and Panevėžys II drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas in Kėdainiai.