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Port Vale vs York — League Two 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
York
York
11/17/2012League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Port Vale50%
×Draw25%
York25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.58
York
1.04

Port Vale creates 52% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 4 away

creates per match

Port Vale
1.66
York
1.00

allows per match

Port Vale
1.09
York
1.50

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
75%
Port Vale or York
75%
Draw or York
50%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
26%
York wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
79%
Port Vale 2+ goals
47%
Port Vale 3+ goals
21%
York 1+ goals
65%
York 2+ goals
28%
York 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
67%
York (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

York away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 1.66 + York defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

York attack 1.00 + Port Vale defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Port Vale scores more
50%
level
25%
York scores more
25%

Port Vale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

League Two: Port Vale 2–2 York

Port Vale and York drew 2-2 in League Two on November 17, 2012.

The match was played at Vale Park.