Nevėžis 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Nevėžis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Džiugas Telšiai

J. Kasparavičius 73'

T. Rakašius 16' (OG)

10/2/2021

A Lyga · Round 31Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nevėžis23%

×Draw25%

Džiugas Telšiai53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.61

Nevėžis

0.96

Džiugas Telšiai

1.61

Džiugas Telšiai creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 100 away

0.39

creates per match

1.00

2.22

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Nevėžis

0.39

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

allows per match

Nevėžis

2.22

Džiugas Telšiai

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

47%

Nevėžis or Džiugas Telšiai

75%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

77%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

8%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

62%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

25%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

7%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

80%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

48%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

30%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 0.39, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 0.39 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 0.96

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.00 + Nevėžis defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nevėžis scores more

23%

level

25%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

53%

Džiugas Telšiai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

T. RakašiusOwn goal

41'

A. Lipskis← A. Emsis

61'

A. Mika← Y. Koike

61'

Jefferson← Ivo Braz

66'

B. Nurudeen

71'

E. Kugys← H. Timite

73'

A. Gėgžna← K. Obolevičius

73'

J. Kasparavičius

77'

M. Vasiliauskas← Péricles

78'

M. Butkus← L. Berednikovas

80'

M. Butkus

80'

L. Antonio

90+1'

A. Mika

Nevėžis

Džiugas

1

29

24

3

33

5

16

▼

Péricles

25

▼

Koike

77

Milev

10

▼

Braz

20

▼

Emsis

34

Granauska

99

Rukuiža

4

🥅

18

6

20

22

17

▼

Timite

27

▼

Oboleviči

7

⚽

Kasparavi

13

▼

Beredniko

Manager: D. Gvildys

71'▲E. Kugys←▼H. Timite

73'▲A. Gėgžna←▼K. Obolevičius

78'▲M. Butkus←▼L. Berednikovas

Nevėžis substitutes

9Kugys10Gėgžna91Butkus35Župerka79Melashenko3Kabdrakhimov19Dmitruk

Manager: M. Šluta

41'▲A. Lipskis←▼A. Emsis

61'▲A. Mika←▼Y. Koike

61'▲Jefferson←▼Ivo Braz

77'▲M. Vasiliauskas←▼Péricles

Džiugas Telšiai substitutes

9Lipskis4Mika95Jefferson7Vasiliauskas6Stanulevičius31Paukštė

A Lyga: Nevėžis 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai

Nevėžis and Džiugas Telšiai drew 1-1 in A Lyga on October 2, 2021.

Goals: T. Rakašius (16' o.g.), J. Kasparavičius (73').

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas in Kėdainiai.

Nevėžis vs Džiugas Telšiai — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Nevėžis 1–1 Džiugas Telšiai