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Nevėžis vs Džiugas Telšiai — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
0 – 1
Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
5/12/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 7Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Nevėžis39%
×Draw25%
Džiugas Telšiai35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
1.47
Džiugas Telšiai
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 27 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.86
Džiugas Telšiai
1.67

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.08
Džiugas Telšiai
1.07

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
65%
Nevėžis or Džiugas Telšiai
75%
Draw or Džiugas Telšiai
61%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
19%
Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
77%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
43%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
18%
Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
75%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
40%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
53%
Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.86 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.67 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nevėžis scores more
39%
level
25%
Džiugas Telšiai scores more
35%

Nevėžis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nevėžis vs Džiugas Telšiai

Džiugas Telšiai beat Nevėžis 1-0 in 1 Lyga on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai).