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Nevėžis vs Dainava — Cup 2020

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dainava
Dainava
4/10/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nevėžis7%
×Draw12%
Dainava82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
0.81
Dainava
3.13

Dainava creates 286% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
0.80
Dainava
3.67

allows per match

Nevėžis
2.60
Dainava
0.83

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Dainava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
18%
Nevėžis or Dainava
88%
Draw or Dainava
93%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
2%
Dainava wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
56%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
19%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
5%
Dainava 1+ goals
95%
Dainava 2+ goals
81%
Dainava 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
8%
Dainava (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Dainava away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 0.80 + Dainava defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Dainava attack 3.67 + Nevėžis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Nevėžis scores more
7%
level
12%
Dainava scores more
82%

Dainava at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Nevėžis 0–0 Dainava

Nevėžis and Dainava drew 0-0 in Cup on April 10, 2026.