Nevėžis 0–1 Dainava: Result & Stats | A Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dainava

T. Vitukynas 86' (pen)

4/24/2021

A Lyga · Round 10Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nevėžis22%

×Draw26%

Dainava51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.51

Nevėžis

0.90

Dainava

1.51

Dainava creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

0.39

creates per match

0.79

2.22

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nevėžis

0.39

Dainava

0.79

allows per match

Nevėžis

2.22

Dainava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

49%

Nevėžis or Dainava

74%

Draw or Dainava

78%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

7%

Dainava wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

59%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

23%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

6%

Dainava 1+ goals

78%

Dainava 2+ goals

44%

Dainava 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

30%

Dainava (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 0.39, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Dainava away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 0.39 + Dainava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Dainava attack 0.79 + Nevėžis defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nevėžis scores more

22%

level

26%

Dainava scores more

51%

Dainava at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dainava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

H. J. Bago Timite

20'

M. Medelinskas

28'

J. Krautmanis← L. Berednikovas

44'

Y. Terzi

49'

J. Kasparavičius← D. Gražys

50'

L. Klimavicius

63'

S. Suzuki← P. Eletu

72'

D. Makeev← S. Hamulic

75'

T. Rakasius

86'

T. VitukynasPenalty

90+3'

D. Makeev

Nevėžis

Dainava

37

89

4

21

11

⚽

6

25

8

29

99

▼

98

79

4

5

8

10

11

▼

Gražys

20

▼

22

17

23

13

▼

Beredniko

Manager: V. Stankevičius

28'▲J. Krautmanis←▼L. Berednikovas

49'▲J. Kasparavičius←▼D. Gražys

63'▲S. Suzuki←▼P. Eletu

Nevėžis substitutes

2Krautmanis7Kasparavičius18Suzuki3Kabdrakhimov34Granauskas99Rukuiža14Makauskas27Obolevičius35Župerka

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

72'▲D. Makeev←▼S. Hamulic

Dainava substitutes

54Makeev12Kalėda19Golekas22Bražinskas30Lukošiūnas35Zelmanis15Marčiukaitis

A Lyga: Nevėžis 0–1 Dainava

Dainava beat Nevėžis 1-0 in A Lyga on April 24, 2021.

Goals: T. Vitukynas (86' pen).

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas in Kėdainiai.

Nevėžis vs Dainava — A Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

A Lyga: Nevėžis 0–1 Dainava