Nevėžis 0–0 Dainava: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Nevėžis

FT

0 – 0

Dainava

9/11/2020

1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 1Kėdainių miesto stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nevėžis42%

×Draw25%

Dainava33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NevėžisExpected goals in this matchDainava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.31

Nevėžis

1.50

Dainava

1.31

Nevėžis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 45 away

1.86

creates per match

1.53

1.08

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Nevėžis

1.86

Dainava

1.53

allows per match

Nevėžis

1.08

Dainava

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Dainava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Dainava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw

67%

Nevėžis or Dainava

75%

Draw or Dainava

58%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+

20%

Dainava wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals

78%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

44%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

19%

Dainava 1+ goals

73%

Dainava 2+ goals

38%

Dainava 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

56%

Dainava (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.08 · 97 matches

Dainava away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.86 + Dainava defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dainava attack 1.53 + Nevėžis defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nevėžis scores more

42%

level

25%

Dainava scores more

33%

Nevėžis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff