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Neustrelitz vs Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
2/4/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Neustrelitz30%
×Draw21%
Lichtenberg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neustrelitz
1.65
Lichtenberg
2.12

Lichtenberg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 45 away

creates per match

Neustrelitz
2.12
Lichtenberg
3.04

allows per match

Neustrelitz
1.19
Lichtenberg
1.18

finishing

Neustrelitz+0.00on par
Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neustrelitz ↓

Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Neustrelitz or draw
51%
Neustrelitz or Lichtenberg
79%
Draw or Lichtenberg
70%

Winning margin

Neustrelitz wins by 2+
15%
Lichtenberg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Neustrelitz 1+ goals
81%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
49%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
23%
Lichtenberg 1+ goals
88%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
62%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
38%
Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neustrelitz at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 3.04, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neustrelitz attack 2.12 + Lichtenberg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lichtenberg attack 3.04 + Neustrelitz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Neustrelitz scores more
30%
level
21%
Lichtenberg scores more
49%

Lichtenberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neustrelitz vs Lichtenberg

Neustrelitz and Lichtenberg drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Neustrelitz.