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Lichtenberg vs Neustrelitz — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
6/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lichtenberg58%
×Draw21%
Neustrelitz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lichtenberg
2.13
Neustrelitz
1.20

Lichtenberg creates 77% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Lichtenberg
2.62
Neustrelitz
1.47

allows per match

Lichtenberg
0.93
Neustrelitz
1.64

finishing

Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lichtenberg ↓

Neustrelitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lichtenberg or draw
79%
Lichtenberg or Neustrelitz
79%
Draw or Neustrelitz
42%

Winning margin

Lichtenberg wins by 2+
36%
Neustrelitz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lichtenberg 1+ goals
88%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
63%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
35%
Neustrelitz 1+ goals
70%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
34%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
74%
Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lichtenberg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lichtenberg attack 2.62 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Lichtenberg defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lichtenberg scores more
58%
level
21%
Neustrelitz scores more
21%

Lichtenberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lichtenberg vs Neustrelitz

Lichtenberg beat Neustrelitz 4-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke in Berlin.