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Neustrelitz vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Neustrelitz
Neustrelitz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
3/19/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 25Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Neustrelitz52%
×Draw23%
CFC Hertha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neustrelitz
1.87
CFC Hertha
1.25

Neustrelitz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

Neustrelitz
2.12
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Neustrelitz
1.19
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Neustrelitz+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neustrelitz ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Neustrelitz or draw
74%
Neustrelitz or CFC Hertha
77%
Draw or CFC Hertha
48%

Winning margin

Neustrelitz wins by 2+
29%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Neustrelitz 1+ goals
85%
Neustrelitz 2+ goals
56%
Neustrelitz 3+ goals
29%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
71%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
36%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)
67%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neustrelitz at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neustrelitz attack 2.12 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.87

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Neustrelitz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Neustrelitz scores more
52%
level
23%
CFC Hertha scores more
26%

Neustrelitz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Neustrelitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neustrelitz vs CFC Hertha

Neustrelitz and CFC Hertha drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Neustrelitz.