Neusiedl 4–1 Wiener SC: Result & Stats

Neusiedl

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wiener SC

A. Tatzer 90+4'

M. Rigo 90+1'

A. Marković 51'

A. Prenqi 32'

E. Keleş 37'

10/31/2024

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 14Sportzentrum Neusiedl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Neusiedl37%

×Draw23%

Wiener SC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeusiedlExpected goals in this matchWiener SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.66

Neusiedl

1.61

Wiener SC

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

1.68

creates per match

1.61

1.70

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Neusiedl

1.68

Wiener SC

1.61

allows per match

Neusiedl

1.70

Wiener SC

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neusiedl+0.00on par

Wiener SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neusiedl ↓

Wiener SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Neusiedl or draw

61%

Neusiedl or Wiener SC

77%

Draw or Wiener SC

63%

Winning margin

Neusiedl wins by 2+

18%

Wiener SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Neusiedl 1+ goals

80%

Neusiedl 2+ goals

48%

Neusiedl 3+ goals

22%

Wiener SC 1+ goals

81%

Wiener SC 2+ goals

49%

Wiener SC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Neusiedl (draw refunded)

49%

Wiener SC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neusiedl at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.70 · 102 matches

Wiener SC away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.55 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neusiedl attack 1.68 + Wiener SC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wiener SC attack 1.61 + Neusiedl defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Neusiedl scores more

37%

level

23%

Wiener SC scores more

39%

Wiener SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wiener SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

A. Prenqi

37'

E. Keleş

46'

M. Pajaczkowski← F. Kerber

51'

A. Marković

62'

D. Fischer← A. Marković

69'

D. Akrap← L. Pfaffl

81'

Matej Maas← A. Prenqi

82'

J. Richards← M. Schuster

90'

M. Vlna← E. Tarzi

90+1'

M. Rigo

90+4'

A. Tatzer

Neusiedl

Wiener

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Marković

⚽

▼

Prenqi

▼

Tarzi

Manager: S. Rapp

62'▲D. Fischer←▼A. Marković

81'▲Matej Maas←▼A. Prenqi

90'▲M. Vlna←▼E. Tarzi

Neusiedl substitutes

FischerMaasVlnaMödlhammerMaas

Manager: J. Csandl

46'▲M. Pajaczkowski←▼F. Kerber

69'▲D. Akrap←▼L. Pfaffl

82'▲J. Richards←▼M. Schuster

Wiener SC substitutes

PajaczkowskiAkrapRichardsTütünciBenderSpraider