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Neusiedl vs Team Wiener Linien — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Neusiedl
Neusiedl
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Team Wiener Linien
Team Wiener Linien
9/29/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 9Sportzentrum Neusiedl (Neusiedl am See)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Neusiedl40%
×Draw23%
Team Wiener Linien36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neusiedl
1.66
Team Wiener Linien
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

creates per match

Neusiedl
1.71
Team Wiener Linien
1.43

allows per match

Neusiedl
1.70
Team Wiener Linien
1.61

finishing

Neusiedl+0.00on par
Team Wiener Linien+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neusiedl ↓

Team Wiener Linien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Neusiedl or draw
64%
Neusiedl or Team Wiener Linien
77%
Draw or Team Wiener Linien
60%

Winning margin

Neusiedl wins by 2+
21%
Team Wiener Linien wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Neusiedl 1+ goals
81%
Neusiedl 2+ goals
49%
Neusiedl 3+ goals
23%
Team Wiener Linien 1+ goals
79%
Team Wiener Linien 2+ goals
46%
Team Wiener Linien 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Neusiedl (draw refunded)
53%
Team Wiener Linien (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neusiedl at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

Team Wiener Linien away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neusiedl attack 1.71 + Team Wiener Linien defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Team Wiener Linien attack 1.43 + Neusiedl defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Neusiedl scores more
40%
level
23%
Team Wiener Linien scores more
36%

Neusiedl at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Neusiedl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Neusiedl 1–2 Team Wiener Linien

Team Wiener Linien beat Neusiedl 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Neusiedl (Neusiedl am See).