Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neusiedl vs Oberwart / Rotenturm — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Neusiedl
Neusiedl
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
3/8/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 18Sportzentrum Neusiedl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neusiedl35%
×Draw24%
Oberwart / Rotenturm41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neusiedl
1.42
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Neusiedl
1.71
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.40

allows per match

Neusiedl
1.70
Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.13

finishing

Neusiedl+0.00on par
Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neusiedl ↓

Oberwart / Rotenturm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Neusiedl or draw
59%
Neusiedl or Oberwart / Rotenturm
76%
Draw or Oberwart / Rotenturm
65%

Winning margin

Neusiedl wins by 2+
16%
Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Neusiedl 1+ goals
76%
Neusiedl 2+ goals
41%
Neusiedl 3+ goals
17%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
79%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
46%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Neusiedl (draw refunded)
46%
Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neusiedl at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neusiedl attack 1.71 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.40 + Neusiedl defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Neusiedl scores more
35%
level
24%
Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
41%

Oberwart / Rotenturm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oberwart / Rotenturm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Neusiedl 3–0 Oberwart / Rotenturm

Neusiedl beat Oberwart / Rotenturm 3-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Neusiedl in Neusiedl am See.