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Neusiedl vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Neusiedl
Neusiedl
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
H. Fattoum 90'
F. Orgolitsch 90'
A. Vucenovic 59'
3/28/2026Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 23Sportzentrum Neusiedl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Neusiedl38%
×Draw24%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neusiedl
1.56
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 107 away

creates per match

Neusiedl
1.68
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.49

allows per match

Neusiedl
1.70
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.45

finishing

Neusiedl+0.00on par
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neusiedl ↓

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Neusiedl or draw
61%
Neusiedl or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
76%
Draw or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
62%

Winning margin

Neusiedl wins by 2+
18%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Neusiedl 1+ goals
79%
Neusiedl 2+ goals
46%
Neusiedl 3+ goals
21%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
80%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
47%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Neusiedl (draw refunded)
49%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neusiedl at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.70 · 102 matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neusiedl attack 1.68 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 1.49 + Neusiedl defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Neusiedl scores more
38%
level
24%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
39%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
A. Vucenovic
90'
F. Orgolitsch
90'
H. Fattoum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Neusiedl 1 – 2 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf beat Neusiedl 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 28, 2026.

Goals: A. Vucenovic (59'), F. Orgolitsch (90'), H. Fattoum (90').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Neusiedl in Neusiedl am See.