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Neusiedl vs Fach-Donaufeld — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Neusiedl
Neusiedl
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fach-Donaufeld
Fach-Donaufeld
3/22/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 20Sportzentrum Neusiedl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Neusiedl34%
×Draw23%
Fach-Donaufeld43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neusiedl
1.52
Fach-Donaufeld
1.74

Fach-Donaufeld creates 14% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 60 away

creates per match

Neusiedl
1.71
Fach-Donaufeld
1.78

allows per match

Neusiedl
1.70
Fach-Donaufeld
1.32

finishing

Neusiedl+0.00on par
Fach-Donaufeld+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neusiedl ↓

Fach-Donaufeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Neusiedl or draw
57%
Neusiedl or Fach-Donaufeld
77%
Draw or Fach-Donaufeld
66%

Winning margin

Neusiedl wins by 2+
16%
Fach-Donaufeld wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Neusiedl 1+ goals
78%
Neusiedl 2+ goals
45%
Neusiedl 3+ goals
20%
Fach-Donaufeld 1+ goals
82%
Fach-Donaufeld 2+ goals
52%
Fach-Donaufeld 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Neusiedl (draw refunded)
44%
Fach-Donaufeld (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neusiedl at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

Fach-Donaufeld away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neusiedl attack 1.71 + Fach-Donaufeld defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fach-Donaufeld attack 1.78 + Neusiedl defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Neusiedl scores more
34%
level
23%
Fach-Donaufeld scores more
43%

Fach-Donaufeld at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fach-Donaufeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neusiedl vs Fach-Donaufeld

Fach-Donaufeld beat Neusiedl 2-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Neusiedl in Neusiedl am See.