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Neumarkt vs Zell am See — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Neumarkt
Neumarkt
FT
3 – 1
Zell am See
Zell am See
8/15/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 3Sportplatz Neumarkt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Neumarkt39%
×Draw23%
Zell am See38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neumarkt
1.69
Zell am See
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 8 away

creates per match

Neumarkt
1.99
Zell am See
1.63

allows per match

Neumarkt
1.72
Zell am See
1.38

finishing

Neumarkt+0.00on par
Zell am See+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neumarkt ↓

Zell am See →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Neumarkt or draw
62%
Neumarkt or Zell am See
77%
Draw or Zell am See
61%

Winning margin

Neumarkt wins by 2+
20%
Zell am See wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Neumarkt 1+ goals
82%
Neumarkt 2+ goals
50%
Neumarkt 3+ goals
24%
Zell am See 1+ goals
81%
Zell am See 2+ goals
50%
Zell am See 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Neumarkt (draw refunded)
51%
Zell am See (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neumarkt at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Zell am See away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neumarkt attack 1.99 + Zell am See defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Zell am See attack 1.63 + Neumarkt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Neumarkt scores more
39%
level
23%
Zell am See scores more
38%

Neumarkt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neumarkt vs Zell am See

Neumarkt beat Zell am See 3-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on August 15, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Neumarkt in Neumarkt am Wallersee.