Neulengbach W 1–2 Wacker Innsbruck W

Neulengbach W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wacker Innsbruck W

5/5/2024

Frauenliga · Round 15Wienerwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Neulengbach W73%

×Draw15%

Wacker Innsbruck W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neulengbach WExpected goals in this matchWacker Innsbruck W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

1.23

Neulengbach W

3.03

Wacker Innsbruck W

1.23

Neulengbach W creates 146% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 41 away

1.85

creates per match

0.93

1.52

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

Neulengbach W

1.85

Wacker Innsbruck W

0.93

allows per match

Neulengbach W

1.52

Wacker Innsbruck W

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neulengbach W+0.00on par

Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neulengbach W ↓

Wacker Innsbruck W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Neulengbach W or draw

87%

Neulengbach W or Wacker Innsbruck W

85%

Draw or Wacker Innsbruck W

27%

Winning margin

Neulengbach W wins by 2+

53%

Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Neulengbach W 1+ goals

95%

Neulengbach W 2+ goals

80%

Neulengbach W 3+ goals

57%

Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals

71%

Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals

35%

Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Neulengbach W (draw refunded)

85%

Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neulengbach W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Wacker Innsbruck W away — creates 0.93, concedes 4.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neulengbach W attack 1.85 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.03

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 0.93 + Neulengbach W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Neulengbach W scores more

73%

level

15%

Wacker Innsbruck W scores more

13%

Neulengbach W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Neulengbach W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff