Neuhof 1–1 Hessen Dreieich: Result & Stats

Neuhof

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hessen Dreieich

5/8/2022

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 8Sportverein Neuhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Neuhof28%

×Draw22%

Hessen Dreieich50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeuhofExpected goals in this matchHessen Dreieich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.89

Neuhof

1.35

Hessen Dreieich

1.89

Hessen Dreieich creates 40% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

2.14

1.63

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Neuhof

1.18

Hessen Dreieich

2.14

allows per match

Neuhof

1.63

Hessen Dreieich

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neuhof+0.00on par

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuhof ↓

Hessen Dreieich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Neuhof or draw

50%

Neuhof or Hessen Dreieich

78%

Draw or Hessen Dreieich

72%

Winning margin

Neuhof wins by 2+

12%

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Neuhof 1+ goals

74%

Neuhof 2+ goals

39%

Neuhof 3+ goals

15%

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

85%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

56%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Neuhof (draw refunded)

35%

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuhof at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

Hessen Dreieich away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuhof attack 1.18 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.14 + Neuhof defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Neuhof scores more

28%

level

22%

Hessen Dreieich scores more

50%

Hessen Dreieich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff