Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Neudrossenfeld vs Karlburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Karlburg
Karlburg
3/21/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Neudrossenfeld62%
×Draw20%
Karlburg19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neudrossenfeld
2.23
Karlburg
1.14

Neudrossenfeld creates 96% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.57
Karlburg
0.94

allows per match

Neudrossenfeld
1.33
Karlburg
2.88

finishing

Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par
Karlburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neudrossenfeld ↓

Karlburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Neudrossenfeld or draw
81%
Neudrossenfeld or Karlburg
80%
Draw or Karlburg
38%

Winning margin

Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
39%
Karlburg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
89%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
65%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
38%
Karlburg 1+ goals
68%
Karlburg 2+ goals
32%
Karlburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
77%
Karlburg (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neudrossenfeld at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Karlburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.57 + Karlburg defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.23

Karlburg attack 0.94 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Neudrossenfeld scores more
62%
level
20%
Karlburg scores more
19%

Neudrossenfeld at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Neudrossenfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Neudrossenfeld vs Karlburg

Neudrossenfeld beat Karlburg 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sportanlage Neudrossenfeld Platz 1 in Neudrossenfeld.